In recent times, I have observed the way Nigerians watched in Admiration as Military took over in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger Republic and now Gabon.
They consciously or unconsciously wish for the same thing to happen in Nigeria as a large number of them are aggrieved about the outcome of the presidential election after a torturous 8 years of misrule under Rt. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari .
It’s understandable because even if the election results were true and authentic, it clearly showed that there were more people that voted against Tinubu than those who voted for him.
By implication, out of all the votes cast, there were 8 million people who wanted Tinubu to be president and then 15 million people who didn’t want Tinubu to be president. A whooping 7 million gap, and even the 8 million votes he got is highly disputed at the tribunals.
Therefore, its common feeling that people want him out in anyway possible, and this is where we must thread with caution.
First of military intervention is not a solution for bad Governance and rot in the system. This is because, the military are trained to kill, not to lead. They are trained to protect, not to govern. Therefore, the tendency of them to be a lot worse than the civilian government they sent packing is very high. History can tell the tale.
Secondly, the military understand the language of force better. They were trained to fight, not to negotiate. They’re not diplomats, and that is why there is higher tendency for wars to break out when the Military is in charge.
It is said that, when the only too you have is a hammer, every problem will start looking like a nail. It’s same with military. The only tool they usually have is force, so every problem looks like what a fight can settle. That’s why military Administrations have always led countries to war. The Biafran Genocide, Abiola Riots, Rwanda, Liberia, Burundi, etc are shinning examples of Military’s understanding of problem solving.
Thirdly, the ranks and files of the Nigerian Military appear to be just the same with politicians. We have seen stories of how they looted arms funds meant to use to fight Boko Haram.
We have also heard stories of how they turn the other way when terrorists like Fulani Herdsmen and Bandits attack Nigerians.
We have also seen Buratai refuse to stepdown after his retirement age and years of service to remain Chief of Army Staff.
Houses of Generals were raided in the past and evidence of corruption abound.
If these same people who have been involved in this kind of looting takes over power with no constitution to checkmate them, no Assembly to query and no freedom of speech or information, you can imagine how worse they will become, knowing that their words will be war.
Fourthly and Most importantly, Nigeria is divided along ethno-religious lines more than it has ever been. Nigeria is not like Niger, Mali, Gabon or Burkina Faso that have nearly one or 2 ethnic groups.
Any coup now will be ethnicized. If it’s not an Hausa Coup, it would be Igbo Coup or Yoruba Coup or Ijaw Coup or Igara Coup or Fulani Coup.
It would definitely lead to counter coups. In recent times we have heard of soldiers of various ethnic groups fighting each other in the barracks.
It’s a pointer to the fact that a military coup will definitely lead us into an inevitable war that would tear down what remains of our fabric of nationhood.
It would multiply poverty by 100, kill opportunities, dreams, hopes and aspirations.
And mind you, boarders, airports and sea ports are the first things to be closed after a coup, so you can say byebye to your Japa plans. And if war breaks out, you can kiss your education, job and even family goodbye.
It’s not worth risking.
Military Coup spells doom and nothing else. Those who rejoiced after the January 15th 1966 Coup either died in the Coup, lost family and friends to death, were forcefully recruited to fight war, died in the pogrom or became killers themselves.
Their joys turned into terrible tears.
May we not repeat the same mistakes over again.
Ọzọ Emena!