“Wike is going down”
“He is about to meet his Waterloo”
“Nemesis have finally caught up with the Godfather of Rivers”
So they say and believe
Because their political calculations is based on emotions
And pure wishful thinking
I mean, who doesn’t want the Downfall of a boastful Wike?
Who challenged all and sundry and won 80% of the time?
Who doesn’t like the beautiful lovely underdog story?
Of the young David pulling down the boastful arrogant Goliath?
But such fantasy is reserved for children’s books
Or exists in the beautiful world of Marvel and DC comics
Or our own dear Nollywood
Certainly not in politics
In politics
Especially the crude soulless one we play here in Nigeria
Calculations are made based on reality
Not how people feel
In the World of Reality
Nyesom Wike has Nuisance Value
And the problem with having Nuisance Value is that while it might not help you a lot
It can destroy a whole lot for you
Here’s the calculation;
For Fubara to win Wike
He needs the help of President Tinubu, who can fire Wike and send EFCC after him and his associates immediately
In contrast, Wike doesn’t need anybody’s help to deal with Fubara and the few APC Governors trying to join forces with Fubara
While Wike can deliver Tinubu in Rivers, FCT and nearby South South States by any means necessary and unnecessary, lawful and unlawful
Fubara cannot comfortably deliver Tinubu in Rivers, especially with Rotimi Amechi heading the Coalition in that region
If Tinubu favours Wike and discards Fubara, there will be very little consequences.
The worst Fubara can do is to join the Coalition.
If Tinubu favours Fubara and throws Wike under the bus
Wike will do to him, what he did to Atiku.
He will join forces with the Coalition and move his structures which is now almost nationwide, into ADC
Even if he’s in EFCC Custody by then
The financial war chest available to Wike
The network he has built across all sectors
Will just be the edge ADC needs to win the election.
Close your eyes and imagine Amechi and Wike working together against a Fubara in Rivers and other South South States
Stop imagining
It won’t happen
Because Tinubu will do what every calculative Politician will do
He will ignore Rivers State and let the strongest win.
Then work with the winner
And without Tinubu’s help
Fubara can’t win
For those who really hate Wike and desire his downfall badly
You may have to wait a little longer
Or pray for him to die overnight.
But if history is anything to rely on
It’s that men who are hated by the public
Hardly die when people want them to
Just like Buhari
My name is Zoba De Great and this is MY DAILY PARAGRAPH